Six Things to Watch Out for This Election

Source: Totem India Election News 2014
Yes, it's election time 2014. The general elections, coupled with several states like Maharashtra, Seemandhra and Telangana are headed to the polls. While everyone is busy slugging it out, there are several key factors that may be missed out by several people. After all, in the quest for numbers, several people forget that elections are as much about chemistry - with the voters and with the allies apart from the media blitzkreig that serves as propaganda and watchman at the same time. I put forward six things which in my opinion need to be kept an eye on:

1. Decimation of the Left Front - The Left has been one solid unit until now, with the Revolutionary Socialist Party and the Forward Bloc crying foul and leaving the coalition angrily. This will translate into major headaches for the CPI and CPI(M) in particular, since the vote share of this block ensured that they always had respectable number of seats as a combine, in addition to serious infighting in the Kerala state unit. Consequently, both these parties and the Front itself now stares at a complete washout, making them irrelevant in many places. 2014 may very well see the beginning of the end of the Left Front.

2. Federal Front/Third Front are Stillborn children - However hard they may try, this one is just not going to take off. No one can deliver that many seats in Bihar, West Bengal, Orissa or Tamil Nadu (more on this state ahead). Ambitious individuals within the Samajwadi and Bahujan Samaj parties stare down the barrel of defeat in Uttar Pradesh due to aggressive campaigning and clever electoral strategizing by the BJP. The candidature of Narendra Modi from Varanasi will not only deliver them seats in Purvanchal, but also tilt much of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, much to Nitish Kumar's chagrin. Add to it Madhya Pradesh's near clean sweep, and the Congress and others do not face much of a chance here.

3. Tamil Nadu will Spring a Surprise - Jayalalitha will win the majority of seats; there is no doubt on it. Howver, getting Vijayakanth's DMDK on it's side has ensured that BJP along with several smaller parties all of a sudden become a formidable front in certain parts of the state. With the infighting of the DMK coming to haunt it, and adding the Narendra Modi swing factor that gives BJP double digit vote share in several opinion polls for the first time ever in the state, one may just see this bunch of people springing a surprise on the national front. Even 8 seats from the state means that the NDA itself can be strengthened.

4. Congress (I) shall Have the Lowest Tally Ever - Being reduced to insignificance within Andhra-Telangana, and the inability to secure seats in most parts of the country while losing seats in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat, the chances for the Congress to being reduced to nothing within the North and West are very high. No wonder everyone is shying away from fighting the election within the party. This is primarily due to the lack of effective state leaders, who as Shekhar Gupta said, do not even last a week before being cut to size within the party.

5. Bengal will see the beginning of polarization - Jangipur's by election that brought in our President's son into the Lok Sabha sa BJP secure the third place in Jangipur, Murshidabad, a Muslim majority district along the Bangladesh border. Opinion polls show the BJP securing 12% of the total vote. This is the Narendra Modi effect in Bengal as per the polls; however with the Left, Congress and Trinamool all propagating fake secularism, there is a massive undercurrent within the state amongst the majority waiting for a moment to strike. These elections could see the resurrection of the BJP within Bengal beyond the North Bengal - Dooars region in places like Burdwan as well as Modi means the rise of Hindutva organizations, which have been on the ascendant within Bengal during this term of Trinamool. Rioting, though unreported, is already taking place in many districts, and polarization of votes may very well happen.

6. Aam Aadmi Party may be Rendered Irrelevant like the Janata Parivar - The way AAP is trying to expand at the expense of it's own organizational strength, the party could very well be thrashed into irrelevance by an irate electorate beyond Delhi-NCR. They could've won in smaller states like Haryana, Punjab and Himachal Pradesh; however, their unnecessary antics in Gujarat, Karnataka and Maharashtra, coupled with an angry bunch of press members constantly squealing on Arvind Kejriwal and his cronies, has meant that the party is losing votes even more rapidly than gaining it. Instead of becoming a beacon of change, it is becoming a party of confusion, turning out to be another Congress, and Congress has no space in these elections for the electorate.

Happy campaigning everyone! May the best person win, and help India achieve its destiny.


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