Sunday, November 4, 2012

Congress Rally - Bugle for 2013 Polls

Congress had a massive rally today, November 4, 2012 in Delhi. While many people are trying to read the aggressiveness in the Congress' stance, particularly the stance of the top three - Sonia, Rahul and Manmohan Singh ji, are tea leaves that need to be read again.

This was an attempt to recharge the ground level cadre of the Congress party, which has been beleaguered by the incessant spate of corruption charges, many with credible grounds, going all the way up to the top. A defensive Congress is a weak, directionless Congress, and hence, the rally is a war cry. Sonia Gandhi is a combative person by nature, and she believes that offense is the best defense, and hence this rally.

Rahul Gandhi and Manmohan Singh's roles are being given a revamp within the party set-up. Manmohan Singh can no longer be apolitical, and the set up of the Congress is being re-written ala the People's Action Party (PAP) of Singapore, which has not lost an election, but had Goh Chock Tong between the the two Lees' tenures. Similarly, Rahul Gandhi will now have to engage more regularly with the party and its cadres, who seek inspiration from their 'charisma' and 'leadership'.

This rally is a clear sign that General Elections are going to happen earlier than 2014. Many reasons can be seen if a pan-Asian scenario is scanned. Junichiro Koizumi staked his government on privatization of postal savings scheme of Japan, and came back with a 'mandate from the people' to undertake the reform measure. The Congress party tried selling hard their 'reform' agenda, being pursued after wrecking the economy, and having recognized that it cannot get worse than a defeat, the Congress party shall call for an early election to minimize the damage from self goals scored every day by incompetent middle level leadership of the party. My assessment is that the elections shall happen anywhere between May and August of 2013, while the snap elections shall be announced in March 2013. Moreover, it can have the surprise element on its side with a reluctant Opposition, including an ill-prepared 'political-civil society'.

In short, this rally is a war cry for the party to its cadre - The bugle has been blown! Get ready for elections!

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